A new report from the South Korean state-funded Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) has asserted that the current atmosphere of active North-South relations will not ultimately prove helpful in terms of the denuclearization, reform and economic and political opening of North Korea.
Incorporating the opinions of experts from a number of fields, ‘The Vision and Value of Unifying the Korean Peninsula’ explains, “If South Korea promotes active cooperation and exchanges with the current North Korean regime, which is one that rejects denuclearization and reform, it will help to preserve the status quo and make denuclearization and reform harder.”
“South Korea cannot pursue cooperation and exchanges unilaterally while the international community maintains its sanctions against North Korea,” the report goes on. “In particular, South Korea will have a hard time actively approaching cooperation and exchanges given the fact that investment in North Korea will be hard without denuclearization and liberation.”
“Only after denuclearization and reform can cooperation and exchanges be pushed forward to let the relationship between North and South develop normally and logically based on economic logic,” the report concludes.
Meanwhile, those experts in the report agreed also that by utilizing North Korea’s land and natural resources, as well as human and tourist potential, the benefits of unification could prove to be far bigger than the costs.”
“Because reunification is like a marriage between man and woman,” the report claims, “the costs of unification are much the same as the cost of furnishing a marital home. Therefore, there is the need to take a concrete look at the benefits of unification that will come from investing in unification.
KINU Director Seo Jae Jin said, “All areas of North Korea will be a new asset after unification, so, depending on how those different regions of North Korea are used, new sources of revenue could be generated. If, for example, the land and underground resources of North Korea are developed, large benefits could be created that outweigh the costs of reunification.”
“The investment in unification,” Seo continued, “would raise the incomes of North Korean people and bring the development of industry, and this would lead to increased purchasing power for South Korean products. Through the process of investment in North Korea, millions of jobs would be created, and if tax revenues can be increased by energizing the North Korean economy this will decrease the overall cost to South Korea.”
A senior researcher with the Institute for National Security Strategy, Cho Hyeon Tae echoed a similar outlook in his speech, ‘Regional Development Projects Following Unification’, saying, “There are over 300 different kinds of mineral resources worth a possible 6,984 trillion won buried in North Korea, and even just the 140 useful minerals that are usable right now would generate enough income to offset the costs of unification with a bit left over.”
Cho continued, “North Korea has underground resources with enormous potential value: as much as 6 billion tons of magnesite, 16 billion tons of brown coal and 100 billion tons of limestone.”
“Some of the ten important rare metals designated by South Korea exist in North Korea, including tungsten, molybdenum, manganese and magnesium,” he added.
Cho also said, “Similar to that which followed the reunification of Germany, one of the priority operations should be the construction of tourism infrastructure connecting Mt. Baekdu, Mt Keumgang and the DMZ. We should develop Pyongyang as a historical tourist city of socialist autocracy and redevelop the Yodok political prison camp as an educational and tourist destination for future generations.”
Meanwhile the report contains suggestions that unification would have political and economic benefits for the other countries with a stake in the region; China, the US, Japan and Russia.
“Unification of the Korean Peninsula would remove a cause of regional instability and construct an environment where China can concentrate on economic development,” it notes. “In particular, unification would accelerate growth in China’s three northeastern provinces through economic cooperation with the unified Korea, and the increased purchasing power of 27 million North Koreans would open up new markets for Chinese products.”
“Unification would free China from criticism that it has prolonged the suffering of the Han people via its support of the North Korean dynastic dictatorial regime,” it also notes. “To escape the label of being the sponsor of an dictatorial regime would increase China’s prestige as a superpower.”
“For America, a major source of Northeast Asian instability and the threat of WMD proliferation would be removed, raising its international status further through the spread of democracy. And for Russia, unification would strengthen economic ties with Korea, allowing it to further develop Siberia and Primorsky Krai, as well as contribute to foreign currency earnings through the use of the Trans-Siberian Railroad,” it adds.
