[imText1]Some people are predicting a new structure of succession in North Korea, in that early this year Jang Sung Taek was reinstated as a councilor to Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Nam, Kim Jong Il’s eldest son, and Kim Kyung Hee, Kim Jong Il’s younger sister have been strengthening their cooperative relationship.
Japanese press revealed that Kim Kyung Hee, who is in Pyongyang, and Kim Jong Nam, who is in Beijing, made several international phone calls regarrding the power trends of North Korean leaders. The two displayed a relationship friendly enough to talk for more than 1 hour on the phone, leading some to suggest that they might be aiming for a cooperative successor structure.
According to confidential sources, because party and military leaders’ destinies depend on who becomes the successor to Kim Jong Il, the three factions of the eldest son Kim Jong Nam, second son Jong Chul, and youngest son Jong Un, divided and began competing against one another. Party and military leaders who are sensitive to power mechanisms are watching what actions the three take, for North Korean society puts the priority on what the head of the country (Janggunnim) says.
The North Korean Successor Structure Exists Amid a Foggy Political Situation.
More attention is being paid to Jang Sung Taek, the First Department director of the Workers’ Party, who spent two years being “rehabilitated” after sparking unease that he was a little too eager to succeed his father. Since Kim Jong Il expelled Jang Sung Taek from his position, rumors have spread that the expulsion was made in order to designate Kim Jong Chul, Kim Jong Il’s second son, as successor. Many people have therefore stated that Jang Sung Taek’s reinstatement could be an important variable in the naming of the North Korean successor.
Jang Sung Taek’s Reinstatement, Incompatible with Successor Structure yet
Foremost, Jang Sung Taek’s reinstatement seems to be related to North Korean policies towards China, such as the liberalization matter, rather than the successor structure. Kim Jong Il has enjoyed his unique management style that has bred loyalty through the sudden purges and re-education of his key figures, ensuring thier adherence to his revolutionary ideology for years to come.
It is certain that if Jang Sung Taek is successful in achieving liberalization, he would regain his credibility in Kim Jong Il’s eyes, and his power would be revived. Nevertheless, that may not be enough to change Kim Jong Il’s mind on his choice of successor. The only person on who this decision rests is Kim Jong Il himself.
If one could guess who the strongest candidate for succcession is at this moment, the most likely choice would be the second son, Kim Jong Chul. Kim Jong Il’s establishment of absolute power and a feudal ruling system ensures that he will designate as a successor the son who was most loved by his mother.
However, the sons of Kho Young Hee, who played a practical wife role, could also be the successors. Among her sons, the eldest son, Kim Jong Chul, is a stronger candidate than her second son, Kim Jong Hun.
If Kim Jong Il does not care, the fact that Kim Jong Nam is a child born of his second wife may not be important. However, because Kim Jong Nam has already fallen into disfavor with Kim Jong Il, this fact could be seen as a significant disadvantage for him.
Kim Jong Nam, Likely to Start Successor Strife
Kim Jong Nam has been in China since he was prohibited from coming back to North Korea due to an attempt at gaining a false passort in Japan. He has therefore faced difficulty in regaining the favor of Kim Jong Il. The longer Kim Jong Nam stays in China, the more advantageous it will be for Kim Jong Chul.
At the same time, Kim Jong Nam’s experience in China has had its merits. China has been pushing Kim Jong Il to implement reforms and liberalize. Therefore, Chinese support could be both the advantage Kim Jong Nam needs to secure his succession to Kim Jong Il, as well as offer China assurance that North Korea will implement the changes that China has urged for the benefit of Northeast regional economic and political security.
Also, because Kho Young Hee, guardian of Kim Jong Chul, died, Kim Jong Nam is justified by the Korean custom that says the eldest son will be successor. Rumor has it that Kim Jong Nam is close to high-ranking Chinese officials’ sons, including a son of Jiang Zemin. Additionally, signs that Kim Jong Nam has entered the fight for successor have somewhat apparent.
However, the person closest to Kim Jong Il is Kim Jong Chul. Recently, FreeNK Broadcast reported that Kim Jong Chul was assigned as director of a department within the Party, and revealed a document claiming that Kim Jong Chul is one of the Party’s top leaders. Last year, when Hu Jintao, president of China, visited North Korea, Kim Jong Chul participated in a luncheon as successor, and rumor has it that Kim Jong Chul accompanied Kim Jong Il on a visit to China this year.
Although the authenticy of the information is difficult to evaluate, it seems, thus far, that Kim Jong Chul’s potential succession is based solely only on rumors.
Kim Jong Il “will work to 80 or 90”
At this moment, the most important fact is that during a birthday-celebrating interview conducted by a foreign news agency, Kim Jong Il was quoted as saying, “I will not designate a successor until I am 70”. During the interview he also noted, “I will work until I’m 80 or 90”.
Kim Jong Il himself won a victory for succession against his uncle Kim Young Ju, and later conquered power from his father. Given these experiences and his vitality, Kim Jong Il would not likely renounce his power until absolutely necesesary. Therefore, even though he has begun considerations as to his successor, he will likely delay the decision as long as possible.
Considering Kim Jong Chul’s age, and Kim Jong Il’s distrust, it will not be easy for him to relinquish the dictatorship. Because he does not trust anybody, including his sons and advisors, Kim Jong Il is not likely to allow the hereditary succession of power to Kim Jong Chul anytime soon.
Although it depends on the duration of the North Korean system, given Kim Jong Il’s intention to work until his 80s or 90s, it seems that Kim Jong Il’s three sons, Jong Nam, Jong Chul, and Jong Hun, will continue to battle for their father’s favor in order to be named the next ruler of North Korea.
Moreover, there is also a chance that due to the current conflicts that North Korea faces domestically and internationally, various complications could significantly change the fate of North Korea. In the end, there seems to be no simple answer to the question of who will replace Kim Jong Il.
