The investigation into the cause of the explosion which sank the Cheonan and killed tens of its crew deep in South Korean waters near Baengnyeong Island on March 26 has continued for three days; however, no specific progress on discovering the cause of the accident has been made.
The cause can best be investigated after the Cheonan is brought to the surface but, due to the size (1,200 tons) of the vessel, the salvage operation will take more than a month.
The South Korean administration is working with four possibilities in mind: an explosion from within the ship; collision with a submerged rock; explosion caused by a mine; or a torpedo attack.
However, based on our understanding of the sea bed where the accident occurred and the violent nature of the explosion, it is highly unlikely that the ship went down after striking a rock.
Therefore, possible causes of the accident are an explosion within the ship or attack from without. Whether the hull of the ship exploded outwards or inwards should resolve that question.
In order to find the necessary evidence, a Ship Salvage Unit (SSU) is helping with the search; however, strong currents make getting access to the ship very difficult.
The South Korea military authorities agree that the accident may have been caused by a munitions accident or exploding fuel, while the possibility of it being a result of North Korean sabotage is also being carefully raised.
The South Korean government’s initial judgment is that North Korea was not responsible for the sinking, though this does not mean that they are excluding the possibility entirely.
During President Lee Myung Bak’s hastily convened security meeting at the Blue house on March 28, Lee cautioned against rash judgments. “The investigation should proceed with every possibility in mind,” he said, “Hasty conclusions or chaos caused by such conclusions shouldn’t be allowed to occur.”
Won Tae Jae, a spokesman for South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense, also commented, “Weight is being given to the possibility of the Cheonan having been attacked; however, no conclusions are being made yet.”
Yonhap News quotes a Blue House official as saying that it is quite believable that the accident was caused by a mine.
The official explained that it might have been a mine set by the South Korean Navy and never removed, or by North Korea in South Korean waters. Both possibilities are equally plausible. Even if that cause is confirmed, it will be extremely difficult to conclude whose mine it was due to poor visibility.
Theories implicating North Korea in the attack point to recent provocations in the West Sea around the Northern Limit Line (NLL) such as irregular coastal artillery firing practice, and information from people who saw the Cheonan go down in a way which suggested damage caused by a mine or torpedo.
It is true that North Korea is capable of launching such an attack from one of its small submersible craft or midget submarines, and it is also notable that the last meeting between the two Koreas in the West Sea, the Daechung naval battle in November, 2009, resulted in heavy damage to a North Korean vessel.
Also, North Korea has engaged in building up tension in the area primarily to argue for the conclusion of a Korean War peace agreement, and the way a warlike atmosphere can be used by the North Korean regime to shift the attention of its citizens away from the hardships visited upon them by recent post-redenomination economic troubles and food shortages cannot be excluded from the debate, either.
Regardless, Captain Park Yeon Su, the operations officer on the sunken Cheonan, knows what he thinks. During a presentation for the families of missing sailors’ on March 27, he declared, “There is absolutely no possibility of an internal explosion or the ship striking a rock. I can personally guarantee that fact.”
“The other possibility is that the ship was attacked. However, this is uncertain and an investigation is currently underway, so I can’t comment.”
Meanwhile, the South Korean authorities remain steadfastly neutral, saying that no unusual movements from the North Korean People’s Army were recorded before or after the sinking of the Cheonan, and that when the three naval battles occurred in the region in the past, the North Korean military quickly stated that they were ‘self-defensive measures against the provocations of South Korea,’ whereas they have not made a statement of any sort in this case.
