[imText1]There are those that worry that North Korea could begin to collapse within just a few years, and there are those who say the collapse is already underway.
Ahn Byeong Jik, an Honorary Professor at Seoul National University and Chairman of independent South Korean think tank The Zeitgeist believes that North Korea, dominated by the Kim Jong Il regime, has already entered the collapse phase of its existence.
Chairman Ahn was speaking at a seminar sponsored by the Research Institute for New Korea entitled “The Past, present and future of the policy towards North Korea” on Wednesday, June 3rd.
According to Ahn’s analysis, “North Korea under the Kim regime faces a situation where simply maintaining the economic cycle is impossible. Internal conditions which will inevitably cause collapse are piled all around North Korea.”
He listed the disastrous conditions: collapse of the economic system; collapse of the financial and bureaucratic systems; paralysis in the reigning system; paralysis of social infrastructure; and widespread contraction of production.
“North Korea’s planned economic system has fallen, but a market economic system has not been established to take its place. Without any functioning economic system, the national economy is just drifting,” he continued, adding, “The most obvious signs are consecutive famines and prolonged reliance on foreign aid.”
He explained further, “The ultimate fate of both capitalist and socialist states depends on how the national finances are managed, but in North Korea the finances are managed on an arbitrary basis.”
“The finances in North Korea are mainly controlled by Kim Jong Il and his power elite. Kim Jong Il’s inner circle manages around 80 percent of the national finances and the Cabinet manages the rest. Such a Kim Jong Il-centric financial management system is concomitant with the collapse of the bureaucracy,” he noted.
According to Chairman Ahn’s explanation, it is impossible for the regime to regulate provincial residents because food distribution and other necessities are supplied to a tolerable extent only in Pyongyang, while the provincial population is immersed in the necessity of obtaining food.
In turn, “The fact that the regime cannot control the people under a planned economy means that it is impossible to mobilize manpower. This is intimately connected with the collapse of production activities,” he stressed.
Ahn concluded with comments on the main things to consider when preparing for the reconstruction of North Korea after the probable collapse His list: “Finding ways to achieve international cooperative management of North Korea so as not to create an international trouble spot; providing emergency aid for the North Korean people; rebuilding the state through gradual reform and opening; rehabilitating the North Korean people’s human and property rights; maintaining independent political and economic systems; and reunifying.”
