Minimizing Kaesong, Developing Shinuiju?

[imText1]Amidst the stumbling of South Korean enterprises in the Kaesong Industrial Complex as a result of the December 1 Measure, the assertion is that a “Shinuiju Special Zone” is on the way.

Forum for Inter-Korea Relations representative Kim Gyu Chul held a press conference in Seoul on Monday and released a piece of North Korean special data, which was purchased in March from a foreign consulting company in China, about developing a special zone in Shinuiju. According to Kim, North Korea has a plan to build a special economic zone in the Shiuiju and Wihwado region, on around 83.772 hectares of land.

Kim explained, “It will be pursued according to the Shinuiju Special Economic Zone law, which was written in 2002 when the Shinuiju Special Zone was first on the drawing board. Its purpose at that time was to make foreign currency from foreign visitors passing through casinos and leisure facilities. The plan this time is only to establish a free trade area.”

Regarding the business, he relayed that if the North Korean Cabinet grants permission to use the land for fifty years to foreign private enterprises, the enterprises invest money into it. According to this plan, the infrastructure can be completed by the North Korean Cabinet and foreign private capital by 2010, and other facilities will be set up by the enterprises by 2013.

The first step will be to build a large-scale distribution area, exhibition halls, warehouses for necessities and industrial products, consultation offices and several supporting facilities.

Then comes the second step, a foreign business-dedicated area, and the third step, a free trade area.

The development of Shinuiju Special Zone in 2002 was suspended due to suspicions of tax dodging by the Minister-designate of the Special Zone, Yang Bin, but the Chinese government stopped developing Shinuiju on a practical basis in order to focus on the development of infrastructure and inducement of business into the three Northeast provinces of China, according to Kim.

He asserted that now the Chinese three Northeast Provinces were developed to some extent and China has promised a 700-million dollar loan to North Korea, so this loan may well be used for the development of the Shinuiju and Wihwado region.

Kim presumes that the fact that the First Vice-director of the Guidance Department Jang Sung Taek has been to Shinuiju for a month in July seems to be related to the special zone development.

“During the period of the current South Korean administration, North Korea will minimize reliance on the South’s economy, increase reliance on China, and is planning to promote economic relations with the U.S., the E.U. and Russia,” he stated.

However, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy, Jung Gwang Min noted that, “There has been an idea going around for a long time that North Korea would try to develop Shinuiju, but the idea that the North Korean regime has an interest in Shinuiju due to the cold relations with the South and threats to the Kaesong Complex looks hasty.”

He revealed that, “Experts estimate that North Korea filled 500-1,000 million dollars of its deficit with gains from the Kaesong Complex and other Inter-Korea economic cooperation every year. Slashing the Kaesong Complex or closing it is Kim Jong Il shooting himself in the foot.”