One of the most important issues of debate
that would arise if North Korea faces a rapid destabilization in state
leadership is the question of whether the South will immediately pursue
unification under one political and economic system, or if it will manage the
North under a separate system. Immediate unification means the South would have
to extend the reach of its constitutional government to cover the North, while
a gradual unification means it would have to support and put together a system
of governance so the North will be able to form an individual government.
In this study, we have asserted the need
for the South to swiftly implement the integration of political and economic
systems between the two Koreas and push forward with the establishment of
democracy and economic revitalization within the North. Until now, South Korean
policymakers have had a preference for gradual unification due to excessive
costs and the differences between the South and North. Proponents of gradual
unification argue the two sides should go through a significant period of
coexistence during which they will sufficiently resolve some of the problems
and then move for political and economic integration. If this scenario is a
plausible option, it would indeed be very ideal.
However, the likelihood of realizing that
is incredibly low. As discussed before, given the nature of North Korea’s
leadership, it would be impossible to introduce democratic reforms, and it
would also be unrealistic to think the South and North would be able to reach
unification through coexistence and a mutual agreement. Even if the North
Korean regime were to collapse, it is highly unlikely that the North Korean
people, as East Germans did, will push for immediate unification.
Another reason why we need immediate
unification is following a collapse in its existing system, the North will face
a lack of leadership that can lead a transition into democratic rule and carry
out economic reforms, pushing up political uncertainties. Unlike Eastern
European nations, the North lacks viable alternative political forces such as
opposition parties and civic groups due to its sultan-based totalitarian
leadership. The North Korean people have no experience when it comes to
elements of democratic rule such as governance by law, elections, and political
parties. Due to the lack of an alternative power and experience with democracy,
the country will likely fall into political instability and a vacuum of
leadership. It is at best uncertain whether a sufficiently strong leader and
political forces that can successfully carry out complex reforms and economic
revitalization will emerge.
The only answer to reducing those risks and
filling the political void is the South Korean government. Following changes in
the North, Seoul will need to move with immediate unification in mind,
maintaining military stability on the peninsula while disarming the North’s
troops, integrating both militaries, and deploying unified forces to areas in
North Korea. Simultaneously, it must establish democratic rule in the North,
integrate the political, public administrative, and economic systems, while
pushing for economic revival policies that can wipe clean the past. Thus, the
South must look for ways to achieve swift unification instead of looking for
ways to delay the process due to its own fears. It should analyze the
unification of Germany and use this to identify ways to reduce costs and
overcome discrepancies between the South and North.
Once the two Koreas are under the same
system of a liberal democracy and a market economy and have achieved relative
stability, debate on what state and political structure would be more effective
in running a unified Korea can then unfold. This would be a question of whether
the country should transition to a federal system, and if it should be run
under a presidential or cabinet system. Once a unified Korea finds its own
stability, then will come the time to freely discuss future political systems
and structures.
