A recent report by the Kyungnam University
Institute of Far Eastern Studies predicts a high probability for Kim Jong Eun, having been in power for three years, to introduce a new power structure as he heads into
2015.
December 17th will mark three years since
the death of Kim Jong Il, opening up the new year to intensified efforts by the
young leader to stabilize his rule, expected to come in the form of a wave of
new political policies.
In its “2015 Korean Peninsula Political
Report,” published on November 30th, the institute stated, “The Kim Jong Eun
era may seek a new way of governance to set itself apart from the Kim Il Sung
and Kim Jong Il eras.”
According to the paper, this new managerial
hierarchy could be Kim Jong Eun’s version of the establishment of the National
Defense Commission during Kim Jong Il’s epoch, or the premier system Kim Il
Sung created during his rule. Similarly, the report noted that the young
leader may seek his own foundation for dictatorial rule, like that of Kim Il
Sung’s Juche ideology, focused on self-reliance; and Kim Jong Il’s songun, or
military-first politics.
In the economic sector, attention is on the
North to push a new set of reforms, dubbed the “May 30th Measures,” which (if enforced) are to include a number of exceptional changes: farming households will allegedly see a higher
percentage of the harvest and be given large plots of land, while managers of
state-run enterprises will enjoy increased autonomy.
Regarding this possibility, the report stated that
the North, while still propelling the “simultaneous development of nuclear
weapons and the economy [the ‘byungjin line’],” may very well launch
more reforms aimed at boosting residents’ quality of life.
The report expanded on a number of other speculations, stating, “Amid continued struggles with the U.S.
surrounding North Korea’s nuclear and human rights issues, Kim Jong Eun could
visit China and Russia or hold summits with both in an effort to strengthen
those ties,” adding, “North Korea is on course to attempt this by
attracting foreign capital to escape international isolation and display the
stability of its system at home and abroad.”
The institute also anticipated a move by North Korea to institute
unprecedented measures on its policy toward the South, particularly around the
70th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea, in order to flaunt Kim
Jong Eun’s leadership capabilities. However, rather than focusing solely on the
improvement of inter-Korean relations, even as part of a comprehensive “Eurasia
Initiative” comprising cooperative projects between the two Koreas and neighbors in the
region, the measure is expected to be based on active engagement.
