The process of reshuffling power in the Kim Jong Eun era is creating friction, according to Dr. Yun Duk Min, the chancellor of Korea National Diplomatic Academy. It is a process that carries a real risk of leading to military provocations, Dr. Yun believes.

Yun explained why this is the case at a debate event hosted by Korean Council on Foreign Relations earlier today, saying, “North Korea has taken on the construction of a 3rd generation succession system, and while it looks superficially well organized, internally the process is much more complicated.

“It is right that there is conflict within the regime core in this process of setting in place the Kim Jong Eun system.”

Going into more detail, Yun divided the 3rd generation succession process into three parts: ▲ the creation of a guardianship group as Kim Jong Il’s health deteriorated; ▲ the seizure of power by the guardianship group following Kim Jong Il’s death; and ▲ the establishment of the Kim Jong Eun sole ruling system itself.

“In the current second phase, there is power reshuffling happening inside the guardianship group organized by Kim Jong Il,” Yun said, citing the removal of former Chief-of-Staff Ri Yong Ho. “The Jang Sung Taek (Kim “royal family”) and Choi Ryong Hae (descendants of founding revolutionaries) group is in the process of removing the ‘new military’ faction.”

“While returning political power to the Party, they are handing over economic rights the military used to have to the Cabinet. These rights partly provided operating funds for military units and unofficial income for officers, so discontent will be building up in the military,” he went on to claim.

“There is the particular danger that their judgement that there is policy discord internally could lead to military provocation, more so than (issues in) relations with the United States, China or South Korea.”